Question for Economists: (Unemployment up, dow Up?)

OK:

Simple question:
Friday (2-6-09) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 8280 up 217.5 points. The WSJ's graph shows job losses growing.

The (US) economy lost 3.6 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, half of those losses in the past three months. The tally of lost jobs for the January period was 598,000.

So: Recap: Unemployment is up, and the DJIA is also up??

Commentators explained the rise in the DJIA as simply that investors were reacting to corporate job cuts, since it would save labor costs in US companies, and thereby increase profits.

---> In my humble opinion
This is simply sick. Wall Street, and investors in Wall Street are SICK, and need to be reigned in.
<------

I am also revising my economic predictions:

1) If you actually read my blog, you'll notice I now have a DOW Jones (DJIA) "widget" which will show the latest closing price on the top right of the blog (see here:)

2) I have gotten much more pessimistic about our economy. In a conversation I had at lunch today, we discussed the economy, and I mentioned my expectations that the economy will continue to go down, and when I said I think we will have another (almost) two years until MAY 31st, 2011 before the DJIA bottoms out at a low of 6750. (it closed at 8280 on 2-06-09). Reactions to my predictions were surprisingly positive.

And we discussed the unemployment numbers posted yesterday for January 2009. For two months it looked like we were going to have a 1% per rise in the monthly unemployment rate.

I would presume that with a monthly increase of 1%, then it would take about another 18-20 months until the OFFICIAL unemployment rate equaled 25% (officially another DEPRESSION).

So, because it seems like the unemployment rate is slowing again, I believe we will not get to the bottom of the current (I believe) depression until 2012 or 2013 now.

The End -- Isn't near. -- A (few) prediction(s) for 2011 mod 1-18-09

(orig posted 1-12-09-
ADDED 1/19/09)
update 2-2-09)
updated 2-23-09, and redated to that day!!!

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----->>> UPDATE.. 2-23-09 <<<------------ It's bad. It's SO SO SO bad, that I may need to re-think my prediction, and DOWNGRADE this again... I expect 2011 (two years from now), is still around when we will bottom out, but I think 6750 will be THIS year, perhaps by August 15th, 2009. Today, the Dow closed at 7114.78 down 250 points...,(2-23-09) From 2-02 to 2-23 the dow lost 780 points

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--->>>2-23-09 update<<<----- Dow will be at 6750 THIS summer (august 15th). --->>> Remember folks, I am NOT an economist, nor do I play one on TV (or radio)!

OK, I am sorry. I just wanted to "officially" state that I believe we will FINALLY be done with (the BOTTOM of the recession/depression) in 2011. Specifically, I say around May 31st or June 1st of 2011, the DOW Jones Industrial Average will drop (finally) to 6570.

Today (1/9/09) the dow closed at 8599.18 Down 143.28

(2/2/09) The Dow is currently at 7894.69 DOWN 106 (as of 1:58PM)

That's down 704 points in LESS THEN A MONTH...

So I'm predicting that the dow will drop ANOTHER 2200 points before it starts to go up.

Hey. This is the second depression... Sorry to be a downer, but put that cash somewhere else!


Cheers

Mark Brown

OH.

(update 1-18-09)

Forgot to mention:
as of last week unemployment was up to 7% (officially)

Let's hypothesize that it ain't getting better (unemployment) and will rise (officially) at 1% per month (as it has for past 3 months... (5%,6% and now 7.2%...)

25-7= 18 (25%=unemployment rate during the FIRST depression...)
less current unemployment rate:

gives us 18 months before the GOVERNMENT OFFICIALLY calls this the second Depression.

What to do?

Don't get fired.
Don't go and change your job.
Don't go and give up working.

DO stop using that credit card.
Do start to save (whatever you can)
Do pray. It always works, even if you don't think so...

Bottom Line?

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The Second Depression is HERE. No one will admit it for another two years.

But it's here.

Let's pray that we can all find jobs to help us dig out of this terrible problem..

Good luck to all!