Written 4/7/09, the day before Alcoa is scheduled to release 1st quarter 09 earnings.
Not going to be a bellweather moment, I predict.
Sorry to be so glib. However, now that it looks quite likely that some of my scenarios are coming close to pass.
It DOES look like we're in a {rec/depr} ession . I don't think the most conservative republican around would dispute that.
SO, on posting on 4-23, this does NOT look like it was as bad as expected for the banks?
What gives?
Well the banks were given tons of lee-way to further spin their books because they were given wiggle room to NOT have to write down their losses, if they decide to "hold for future returns"
And that, dear readers, made ALL the difference in the world
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