the REAL point of this blog is to point out that we
were heading for a SECOND "Great" DEPRESSION.
OK. We're there now. I think EVERYONE (except for the public, the press and officials)
can admit the truth.
It's BAD out there!
I think that EVERYONE in the POOR America can honestly say that
IT IS a
Second DEPRESSION
I think we need to ADMIT the truth.
Just like "The Great War" (or the "War to end ALL WARS") became WWI,
We now have to admit the "Great Depression" should now be called
"The FIRST Depression"
'come clean...
It REALLY is the truth.
And remember.
I predict that we STILL aren't over the worst yet.
The "CDO" problem (with Sub-prime Mortgages) are TERRIBLE and are NOT finished with the problems (into the public).
Just like an Iceberg (where only 25% of the iceberg is visible above the water) there is 75% of the iceberg (OR CDO problems) LURKING in our WORLD's FUTURE.
Fact and Question One:
Sub-prime (and STILL regular mortgages) are STILL made into CDO's. WHY is this???
Hasn't it been proven that making mortgages into CDO's is NOT a safe way to invest in Mortgages?
Fact and Question Two:
Consumer Money (Credit Card, Student Loans, Car Loans) is STILL being made and SOLD into CDO's.
Isn't anyone looking ahead to the immediate FUTURE? The SUB-prime mortgage CDO's Crashed.
Does NO ONE ELSE see that CONSUMER debt is ALSO going downhill, or I am Just
So far ahead of the economy (again...) that my predictions are AGAIN at least 2 years AHEAD of everyone else.
Btw, my first post (and prediction about the need for a SECOND new deal (or an SOS for a New Deal) is HERE ?
At any RATE: .. .. .. .. Drum..Roll.. My 2009 predictions....
I predict:
1)The financial industry will NOT listen, and will continue to make cdo's out of mortgages (VERY bad idea). They will find many fewer buyers then previously expected.
1A) I predict that (eventually), the Obama administration will require banks to finally start to HOLD their own debt (again, the way it USED to be!) CDO's will become banned.
2) The CDO market for Consumerized debt (credit card, home, college) WILL COLLAPSE.
Many (Millions???) of us/you will be forced to file CONSUMER bankruptcy.
2a) It will ONLY be after THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of consumers start to overwhelm the FEDERAL bankruptcy courts that the PRESS will FINALLY notice, and bring to the attention of the Congress that the RECENT (2005) bankruptcy laws were NOT CONSUMER FRIENDLY, and ONLY favored the BANKS..
3) The 75 percent of the iceberg that hasn't yet collapsed will swiftly drop, when the US Financial industry starts to notice millions of late payers, and bad debts.
4) The CURRENT US auto industry bailout (Bush -Version 0.50) will fail. There is No longer a Market for automobiles (such as existed two years ago). The next question is: WHO are we TRYING to save?
4a) The current major Industry of Advertising, will be one of the first auto-related businesses to fail (bigger then WALL STREET!)
4b) Auto Makers, Dealers, Resellers, banks, and even car rental companies will Absolutely stop all advertising, as a method to stave off bankruptcy. This will lead Ad agencies to close, and Print media (magazines, newspapers) to be the THIRD industry to fail
Example # 4) The January 2009 issue of GQ was 128 pages. This (I presume) was the First issue after the fallout of the September Stock (and everything) crash (or 1929 crash Two!)
Normal issues of GQ, owned by Conde Nast (as is the New Yorker, and many other magazines)
are about 400-500 pages.
CONSPICUOSLY absent are Car Companies, and MANY, many consumer retail brands.
Mark B in NJ...
(A review for new readers below...)
Fortunately, I really think my 12 point program for pulling us out of the depression CAN work, especially if we do them ALL at once.
Here are the points:
* The current out of control capitalist system has now failed us.
* Single Payer Nationalized health care (to get ins. co buy-in- phased in over 5 years)
* We've managed to WASTE a FULL (and alienate) a FULL generation (from Zero to thirty) with decaying social, educational, and interpersonal skills.
* Our nation is no longer DOING (producing) anything.
SO, from these few premises, I have extrapolated a great deal of items to FIX our society...
We need to do the FOLLOWING to FIX our Society:
* Create A Living Wage
* Create a National Single payer Healthcare
* Create a National 3-4 year draft (or alternate service)
* Create a Federally paid Day Care starting at six months
* Implement Tax Reform on the ULTRA Rich I call this the Milionaire's Minimum Tax!
* Lobbying (Political Reform)
* Education
* Infrastructure (road /bridge/Systems repairs)
* Lack of Training/futures
* A real "Truth and Reconciliation" Commission
* A new "Manhattan" project, focusing on Energy INDEPENDENCE
It's all in the sos-newdeal blog here.
Or just email me for specific questions.
I like to say they all go hand in hand, and it's like juggling a bunch of running chain saws.
Dangerous if any of them drop, but spectacular to watch as being juggled!
Mark Brown in NJ
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